So the Supreme Court has listened to three days of arguments over the “Affordable Health Care Act” (Quotations there for more than one reason, let me add). From “Whether this case can exist” to the Mandate to everything else involved with the law, they sat and listened…and sometimes had people brought up to take stands the two sides were in actual agreement with.
I shall only concentrate on the results from the decision of whether the Mandate is constitutional or not (since the rest of the bill is linked to the mandate, by definition if what I heard is true).
I personally think that the Insurance Mandate is constitutional, as otherwise government cannot exist. Consent Of The Government is good, but there must be a way to insure that those who abrogate their responsibilities to that consent don’t profit off their abrogation of responsibility, and if the government cannot do that job, there is NO job that it is thus allowed to do. Think of it: If the Insurance Mandate is unconstitutional, so are Jails and the Police; and since the one thing that Americans agree on is that Governments have the right to get clear “miscreants” (those who abrogate their responsibilities when it benefits them) from society, then this ruling would declare Government unconstitutional. (But then, that’s how I see it. I’m not a constitutional lawyer nor am I in the Supreme Court so use whatever amount of salt you feel you need for this.)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
As things are, I see four possible rulings:
- The Mandate Stands, QED The “Affordable Health Care Act” stands (seems unlikely, but is possible)
- The Mandate Falls, the bill stands with changes (Not Gonna Happen, and thank God – If anything would be worse than the AHCA, it would be this. We’d be at the mercy of the Health Care Companies, with them able to damn us for any reason whatsoever).
- The Mandate Falls, and with it the whole of the ACTA (Is likely and would be bad for many reasons, but if nothing else we’d be back to where we were – with the option of no insurance still there)
- ACTA Falls, but not because of the Mandate – Medicaid and Medicare are also declared unconstitutional, as is any attempt to institute universal healthcare. There may be more stuff that’s declared unconstitutional from there. (Why am I the only one bringing this possibility up?)
Number two has a 99 44/100% chance of not happening, so I won’t concern myself with that. I DO list it, as it is a possible ruling, but the justices seemed to treat that as an impossible ruling.
So we get the possibility of the Mandate standing or falling. Here’s what I see happening from the two possibilities, from the election onwards (assuming certain things, like steady energy levels and an arresting of the movement of power (and thus, money) from everyone else to the powerful and (thus) rich):
- If the Mandate is Declared Constitutional: Obama gets elected along with other Democrats as people come to believe that the Mandate must be good if it’s constitutional. You’ll see plains states, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico turn Democrat Blue along with the Midwest become solid Democrat and many Southeastern States become shaky in their Redness. The Supreme Court will keep ruling as it does for a while, but the older members will eventually retire (or die), leaving openings for Liberal judges.
- If the Mandate is Declared Unconstitutional: Romney gets elected as many Democrats lose their seats to Tea-Party Republicans (and those may be the leftmost Republicans, may I add…). Pennsylvania, Delaware and the more independent New England States go Republican, as does much of the Great Lakes Region (Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan are kept Blue to mark the states to be punished and destroyed) and both Nevada and Oregon. The Supreme Court eventually speaks with one voice (with the second voice either muted or removed). Cities that had been thriving start dying, as the stuff that has supported them (both economical and intellectual) dies out.
In short, the ruling will dictate the election, and along with it the future of the USA.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
There are two reasons for this, one obvious and the other not.
The obvious reason is that Obama staked his reputation on the Affordable Health Care Act. He worked to get the bill passed, set up the lines of the law (and the limitations), even ordered the Supreme Court to rule on the law as soon as possible. If the Mandate is declared unconstitutional (and the law struck down) he will be seen as absolutely powerless – even as a nothing – worldwide and in this nation; and that in itself will damage the Democratic Party by association.
The Not-So-Obvious reason is that there’s a lot of people out there – many more than will admit to themselves – who will be using the Supreme Court’s ruling to make up their mind on whether Government-run health insurance is a good thing. Some will think it out, some will do a quick reasoning and others won’t even know they changed their minds until after a while (when they realize they no longer watch CNN instead of Fox (or Fox instead of CNN) for their news), but their minds will be changed by the decision and that decision will have far-reaching repercussions.
They will listen to the ruling, figure that the Supreme Court knows what they’re doing, and conform their thoughts and beliefs to the ruling. They will decide, after the Supreme Court decides what is, that “What Is, Is Right.”
And it will likely translate to Medicaid and Medicare, and from there to the Schools and Universities, and from there to other services. Especially if the ruling is for the Mandate to be unconstitutional, since the ruling would mesh with and accelerate the present tendencies.
Assuming, of course, that the Supreme Court DOESN’T declare AHCA unconstitutional on its own.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
I raise that possibility because there IS that possibility. Clarance Thomas would most happy to declare a lot of “entitlements” unconstitutional, and I’m sure that Scalia would happily join in something he’d been waiting his whole life to do. Alito and Roberts would also go along, since it would go along with their belief that if a service/business can’t be profitable it shouldn’t be allowed to exist – even as a nonprofit charitable entity.
And if AHCA were declared unconstitutional in itself, a lot of entitlements would be in line to be declared unconstitutional. Medicaid and Medicare would be first, as they directly deal with health care. Social Security would be next, since a large proportion of the population is taxed for it (indeed, it’s this act which in many ways lays the groundwork for AHCA).
In essence, the Democratic Party – the party that made its reputation on Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and AHCA – could easily become considered unconstitutional by many, just because of the connection between them and the acts. Whole areas of law could be made to disappear, especially when this affects the election.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
This is what we’re looking at: a generational change in the laws of this nation. Whatever way the Supreme Court goes, the nation will conform.
And it is predicted to happen in June.