First, let me put up a couple of links to NFL Super Bowl Standings.
Not to parse out the subtleties:
The Houston Texans are the newest team on this list, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are still new enough to have an excuse. The present incarnation of the Cleveland Browns is also pretty new, although when the Baltimore Ravens were known as the Cleveland Browns they were unable to make it to the Super Bowl (and I don’t care what the official history of the NFL says, the present Browns are a new and different team from the team that moved over to Baltimore).
Then there are the Detroit Lions; also (once) known as the Lie-Downs and the Puddy-tats. After over fifty years of embracing mediocrity (and one year of going 0-16 – only thing harder to do is to go 19-0), it looks like they have a chance at making the Super Bowl in the next few years. While this year they lost in the Wild Card Game (to New Orleans, the SB champion from the year before last), their future actually looks better.
(Can you tell I’m a Detroit Lions fan? I may be a “fair-weather” fan, but I represent them whenever I’m asked about my allegiances.)
Now, onto the topic of Super Bowl Appearances by teams: Out of forty-five games, these four teams have shown up the most:
Which gives twenty-nine Super Bowl appearances, or 31.5% of the slots filled by the four teams. These same four teams have won the Super Bowl a total of sixteen times, for 34.7% of the victories – and the percentage of wins would be higher if it weren’t for the Denver Broncos.
Add in the following teams, each with 5 appearances:
We’re now up to fifty-nine appearances by ten teams. Just under one third of the teams have just under two thirds of team appearances in Super Bowls. They also have 37 of the 46 victories, since both teams will have had five or more appearances by the time LXVI will be done — over four fifths of the victories have gone to teams that have shown up five times or more.
Again: The top ten teams, or just under one third of the NFL, accounts for four fifths of the victories in Super Bowls, and will increase that by the end of the game next Sunday.
Things start getting dismal once you get below five appearances. Teams with four appearances in the Super Bowl have a 2-10 record at the big game. Granted, two of the teams had the bad luck of being superior teams in truly inferior conferences (The Vikings during the ’70s, the Bills during the early ’90′s), but we’re talking the separation between consistently good and consistently bad; and it shows.
As for teams with 3 or less appearances, they are either .500 or below, or have had one Super Bowl showing. Indeed, there’s two stats which show what to expect from the occasional appearance:
So while the saying is that “Any Given Sunday” anyone can beat anyone, historical franchise quality tends to shine in the Super Bowl. So right now, it’s best to say Don’t Believe The Hype”
A couple other items to note while looking at the Super Bowl Standings: It’s much harder to go undefeated than to go winless. Only the San Francisco 49ers have been able to go undefeated with more than one win, while four teams have had multiple appearances without victories to show for it.
Second, while it’s obvious why Detroit and Jacksonville have not appeared in the Super Bowl, there are a couple of cities which have not been represented at the Super Bowl despite having multiple teams. Cleveland missed the Super Bowl with the earlier Browns after co-dominating the fifties with Detroit, and the new Browns Franchise has not really made much of a move. I’ll give them the benefit of a doubt for now, as the present Cleveland Browns are the second newest franchise in the NFL (NFL official history be damned).
Houston is another city that seems to be cursed. While it has the newest franchise, it also had probably the only franchise that finished over five hundred in the regular season and finished last in its conference. (This was the AFC Central, with Pittsburgh in peak form).
So in a way, you’re talking about two unlucky towns. Teams that almost made it (or made the wrong time to be “good enough” in certain cities, only to move on and make the final jump into the Super Bowl. (note: while the Tennessee Titans lost their Super Bowl appearance, they DID appear).
And what’s there to say about Baltimore? One team wins and loses a Super Bowl game in Baltimore, moves to “Greener Pastures” and wins a super bowl after a LONG fallow period; while another storied franchise moves in and does what it couldn’t do in Cleveland (appear, and WIN the game). That city, while not necessarily stable (nor the powerhouse, as the Washington team down the road seems to always garner more attention), seems to be blessed for its faithfulness to Pro Football — they have their own fan club, band and other support teams, which have stuck with the city and driven the NFL (or franchise owners) to add franchises to the city.
Some cities are lucky, others unlucky. Sometimes even the disappearance and appearance of teams into these cities can’t change their innate luck.
Outside of the Detroit Lions showing up and beating up the opponent to the point of the opposition begging for mercy, I expect a good game. I want to see good play on both sides (teams and players rising to the occasion), a closely-fought game that requires both teams to play all sixty minutes (although I’ll take fifty-eight plus – the Victory Formation works for what it does), and enough doubt at the end to keep my attention. Not every game can be Super Bowl XLII (which came complete with a Transcendent Play of its own), but if there’s no mood shots of the losing team moping around towards the end of the game (or at the end of the third quarter, as some of the ’90′s era blowouts gave us) I’ll be happy.
I won’t expect much from the advertisements. Their day has come and gone, and someone will have to do something radically different AND radically good for their ad to be remembered.
I want the National Anthem to be good. Same for the halftime show. No mailing it in (unless you’re the Rolling Stones). If you must mail it in, look like you’re trying (Hear me, Mr. Neville?) Don’t try to be fancy (Aretha – PLEASE?). And don’t try to hide with questionable visuals or gimmicks (Everyone in the Super Bowl XXXVIII Halftime show, Jessica Simpson excluded). And PLEASE, KNOW ALL THE LYRICS TO THE NATIONAL ANTHEM (Christina Aguilera, I’m talking to YOU).
Is the above wish-list too much to ask? The game is its own creature, but the performers and advertisements…please, be good. You can control yourself.
